Crude oil

Yesterday, Saudi Arabia released official prices, which included a light adjustment of $1/barrel to $1.2/barrel on sand for Asian customers. According to Platts surveys, the market previously expected the OSP premium range to be between 0.8 and US$3/barrel. The increase is basically within market expectations, and the biggest increase in Saudi Arabia’s official price is in the Mediterranean. The light premium for Saudi Arabia has increased by $4.8/barrel from last month. This matches the tight supply of Ural crude oil and the strong spot premium. We It is believed that Saudi Arabia has considered the slump of refinery profits behind the announcement of discounts, especially for Asia-Pacific customers. If the premium is too high, it will affect market demand. The current pressure is likely to come from Europe, and some processing medium-quality refineries of sulfur-containing crude oil have to choose to process light and low-sulfur crude oil, which partially supports the current spot premium of the Brent market. In terms of operation, it is advised to maintain the neutral strategy.

Iron Ore

The position on I2009 contract increased by 37,832 lots and closed at ¥770.5 per ton, the position on I2101 contract increased by 4,423 lots and closed at ¥697.5 per ton.

【Important Information】

1. China Logistics and Purchasing Federation July 6th news: According to the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, the global manufacturing PMI in June 2020 was 49.1%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points from the previous month. The rate of increase has expanded from the previous month, and has increased month-on-month for two consecutive months. Manufacturing PMIs in all regions of Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Europe have increased significantly from last month. Except for the manufacturing PMI of the Americas, which has rebounded to over 50%, the manufacturing PMIs of the remaining continents are below 50%.

2. The reporter learned exclusively from a number of local investment and financing personnel that the Ministry of Finance has issued a new batch of new local special debt lines to the provincial financial department. In addition, the amount of 200 billion yuan to supplement the capital of small and medium-sized banks has not yet been issued, and each province needs to fight for it with a specific plan. In late May, the National People's Congress approved a new local government debt limit of 3.75 trillion in 2020. After deducting the 2.29 trillion quota issued in advance and the 200 billion quota supplementing the capital of small and medium-sized banks, the quota issued this time is 1.26 trillion.

3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥775 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥825 per ton.

【Trading Strategy】

1. Arbitrage: This week, Australia and Brazil have declined globally. Australia has posted a greater decline in China. Supply pressure is expected to ease after the end of Australian impulse. At present, the accumulated inventory of ports is mainly due to large accumulation of lump ores and pellets. The material is strong, and the iron ore is difficult to make space under big discount. It is advised to close position by longing contract of 2101 of hot rolled and shorting contract of 2009 of iron ore.

2. Option strategy: It is recommended to consider selling 2009 call options, that is I2009-C-800. (For reference only)

PTA

Polyester losses increased, polyester production and sales continued to be weak

Prospects of the balance sheet: follow-up maintenance expectations and large swings in production, two separate hypothesis estimates. 1) Yisheng and Tongkun have carried out additional maintenance, and continued to remove the warehouse slightly in July. The nodes that accumulated inventory moved to August. (2) The additional overhauls of Yisheng and Tongkun failed to be fulfilled, so they ended removing a small amount of warehouse in June and re-entered the accumulation phase in July. In terms of operation, it is advised to wait and see for unilateral strategy; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that PTA in July will accumulate a small amount of warehouse. Chemical products are generally in the accumulation phase in July, and PTA has no obvious difference in strength, but it pays attention to the willingness of upstream factories to maintain and control under the background of low processing fees; for strategy across period, Yisheng Tongkun's maintenance expectations in July-August assume that the inventory level after de-stocking is still high, the warehouse receipt pressure is still there, and maintains expectations of selling 2009 and buying 2101. It is advised to wait and see, as well as focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes of July to August, and the downstream restocking space.

Natural Rubber

About RU: The main force contract of RU09 rose by 40 or 0.38% and closed at 10,650, The main force contract of JRU10 rose by 1.2 or 0.77% and closed at 156.8. Yunnan WF closed at 10,200-10,400 yuan/ton, Hainan Whole Milk closed at 10,350 yuan/ton, the second landmark of production closed at 10,000 yuan/ton, and Thailand’s tobacco tablets closed at 12,600-12,700 yuan/ton.

About NR: The main force contract of NR09 rose by 15 or 0.17% and closed at 8,980. The main force contract of TF09 rose by 0.8 or 0.67% and closed at 120.4. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $10 per ton with general inquiries. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,250 to $1,260 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in November was $1290 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in November was $1300 per ton.

Gasgoo: According to data released by the Italian Ministry of Transport, sales of new cars in Italy fell 23% in June this year to 132,400. From January to June, cumulative sales in Italy this year fell 46% to 584,400. Sales for short-term vehicle rental companies fell 66%, narrowing from a 92% decline in May. Both the industry associations ANFIA and UNRAE expect that if the government does not introduce scrapped old cars to stimulate sales, new car sales in Italy will drop by 37% this year to 1.2 million.

The purchase price of glue in Hainan region has stopped falling and rebounded, and it is difficult for the processing factories to control the price. According to third-party statistics, stocks outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone were slightly destocked by about 0.5% last week. The operating rate of the tire production line is running weakly. The recovery increment of exported tires is not enough to make up for the slow shipment of replacement tires, and the overall finished product inventory continues to grow.

Futures Operation Advice: For the main force contract of RU09, it is advised to hold large volumes in short term and the stop loss should be moved up to the previous high of 10510 points. (For reference only)