The impact of China’s previous overbought crude oil on the market was not entirely reflected in the overdraft of future crude oil purchase demand. The current negative feedback also includes refined oil exports. In August, the domestic main refinery gasoline and diesel export plan was 2.47 million barrels. Among them, gasoline was 1.05 million tons and diesel was 1.32 million tons. Gasoline exports increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the two combined increased by about 4%. The gasoline-to-Brent cracking spread has once again fallen to a negative range, and the naphtha cracking spread has also fallen sharply recently, which will further deteriorate the profitability of refineries in other parts of the Asia-Pacific region, thereby inhibiting refinery operating rates and crude oil procurement.
Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, Brent reverses, buys six lines and throws the first line
Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events (The first line is the first contract to expire, the other five lines and so on).
The position on I2009 contract decreased by 20,415 lots and closed at ¥886 per ton, the position on I2101 contract decreased by 2,310 lots and closed at ¥797 per ton.
1. The Secretariat of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade (Secex) stated that in July, the export volume of Brazilian iron ore only decreased by 0.69% year-on-year, which was an increase from the previous month, reflecting the emergence of Brazilian iron ore exports since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Signs of recovery. In July, Brazil’s iron ore exports were 33.99 million tons, compared with 34.23 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13% from 30.05 million tons in June.
2. This week (August 3rd-August 9th) Australia and Brazil have some iron ore shipping berths undergoing maintenance: Australia expects that the impact of berth maintenance is about 2 million tons. It is estimated that the impact of berth maintenance in Brazil this week is about 1.05 million tons.
3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥887 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥932 per ton.
1. Arbitrage: There are more inspections and repairs in Australia this week, and overall shipments are not expected to be high. Australia's recent arrival pressure is expected to decrease. At present, iron ore demand remains high and pig iron has further increased. The short-term overall inventory pressure is expected to be limited. The structural contradiction has not been resolved. The price difference between PB and golden Bubba is still large, and golden Bubba inventory is still falling. The pressure has not yet been clearly manifested, and there is still a certain basis in 09. It is recommended to cash and carry arbitrage iron ore with light positions.
2. Option strategy: There is still a certain margin in the recent month contracts. It is recommended to sell I2009-P-820 instead. (For reference only)
The overhaul is carried out, but the production and sales of polyester have declined again
Prospects of balance sheet: In the context of PTA still having processing profits, the possibility of additional overhaul at Yisheng is uncertain. The inventory will accumulate if the overhaul doesn’t happen, and will not accumulate if it happens, while the inventory still remains at high level. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is expected to fall gradually; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that possibility of overhaul of PTA in August is still large. The performance of the cross-species may be weak, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, Yisheng Tongkun's July-August maintenance assumptions are still high after cashing. The warehouse receipt pressure is still there, the 9-1 reverse cash and carry strategy was under pressure and close to the rolling window at -200. It is advised to wait and see, as well as focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes of July to August, and the downstream restocking space.
RU: The main force contract of RU01 fell by 10 or 0.08% and closed at 12,130. The main force contract of JRU10 rose by 0.9 or 0.54% and closed at 167.2. Yunnan WF closed at 10,700 to 10,800 yuan/ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 10,750 yuan/ton, the second standard rubber closed at 10,550 yuan/ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 13,000 to 13,150 yuan/ton.
NR: The main force contract of NR10 fell by 10 or 0.11% and closed at 8,965. The main force contract of TF10 rose by 0.7 or 0.55% and closed at 128.3. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell slightly by 5 dollar/ton with normal inquiries. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,285 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in December was $1,300 to $1,305 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in December was $1,320 to $1,330 per ton.
Gasgoo news: A survey conducted on August 3 showed that the Spanish economy began to gradually recover as the Spanish government ended the epidemic lockdown measures a month ago. In July of this year, Spanish auto factories gradually resumed production, ending the worst production slowdown in the past 12 years. The number of new car registrations in Spain in July increased by 1.1% year-on-year, from 116,673 in the same period last year to 117,929.
In terms of concentrated latex, Hainan has recently ushered in concentrated rainfall, and the local glue purchase price is firm. The supply of domestic finished latex and imported Vietnamese latex is looser than that of Thailand. The Indonesian standard rubber on the trade side is relatively weak, and the profits of the delivery of NR contracts are showing. It is expected that the proportion of Indonesian warehouse receipts will increase. The year-on-year decline in downstream tire exports continued to narrow.
Futures Operation Advice: As for the main RU01 contract, it has many fallback to try long positions. It is advised to pay attention to the support at the previous high of 12,020 points. (For reference only).