At present, the market is paying more and more attention to the potential impact of the release of floating warehouses and oil tankers. We think this is a time bomb in the current crude oil market. Previously, when the crude oil forward curve in April turned into a deep discount, a large number of traders used floating warehouses to store oil and shore tanks to carry out futures arbitrage. The effect was to shift the supply of recent months to the future months. Calculated from time, usually floating warehouses are locked for a 6-month charter period for oil storage, so cargoes locked in April will be released in October. For traders, it is necessary to sell this part of the cargo to the spot market in order to realize the profits of oil hoarding arbitrage. The current market (oil distribution) is trading in October, so in the next 1 to 2 months, the pressure on the cargo market will be very high. And if there is no incremental demand to digest this part of the supply, the market must again give a monthly discount to allow the floating warehouse cargo to be extended.
Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, Brent reverses, buys six lines and throws the first line
Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events (The first line is the first contract to expire, the other five lines and so on). USD has depreciated sharply.
The position on I2009 contract decreased by 14,959 lots and closed at ¥893.5 per ton, the position on I2101 contract decreased by 23,076 lots and closed at ¥818.5 per ton.
1. In response to reports from relevant parties that the number of iron ore ships in the port has continued to increase due to weather, epidemic prevention and control, and concentrated arrivals in ports, which has caused some iron ore to be stranded and unable to enter the market for circulation, the China Iron and Steel Association has repeatedly asked the Ministry of Transport reports and reports. It is understood that the Ministry of Transport has also noticed these problems and has taken measures to resolve them. It is expected that as the weather improves and the epidemic is effectively controlled, the problems of iron ore unloading difficulties and port pressure will be alleviated in the middle to late this month.
2. The Ministry of Commerce extended the application period for Australian product licenses to 11 working days, and the Australian iron ore and coal licenses were extended to 10-11 working days accordingly.
3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥900 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is ¥830-840 per ton, which is equivalent to ¥940-950 per ton of the standard products.
1. Unilateral Strategy: Domestic pig iron production remains high, and iron ore demand is running at a high level. Under high pig iron production, it is expected that the overall inventory will hardly be under cumulative pressure, mainstream fine ore prices are relatively strong, and structural problems have not been alleviated. Yesterday the Ministry of Commerce extended the approval time for the import license of Australian mines or affected the pace of unloading. Importers need to determine the port of unloading in advance, apply for permits in advance, or curb speculative demand to a certain extent. Whether port spot prices remain strong depends on the rigid domestic demand for pig iron. In addition, the volume of high-pressure ports has a certain impact on the circulation of goods, and attention needs to be paid to the speed of later unloading. At present, the spot price of iron ore is at a high level, and the profit of long-process steel mills is relatively thin, and its fluctuation may be affected by the trend of steel prices. The short-term iron ore upward trend shows slight pressure. It is recommended to consider long positions in recent months to lighten up and leave the market, and establish a long position on the 05 contract after the return.
2. Arbitrage: Use large discounts on iron ore contracts as long positions.
3. Option strategy: In the short term, consider selling volatility, such as selling i2101-c-880 and selling i2101-p-770 (For reference only).
Polyester production and sales are still weak, and upstream factories have not continued to repurchase.
Prospects of balance sheet: Weekly TA overhaul concentration has rebounded; however, the monthly frequency is still weak. If Yisheng overhaul is not fulfilled, it will continue to accumulate in August; Yisheng overhaul will be flat in August, while the inventory still remains at high level.
In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is expected to fall gradually; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that possibility of overhaul of PTA in August is still large. The performance of the cross-species may be weak, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, Yisheng Tongkun's July-August maintenance assumptions are still high after cashing. The warehouse receipt pressure is still there, the 9-1 reverse cash and carry strategy was under pressure and close to the rolling window at -200. It is advised to wait and see, as well as focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes of July to August, and the downstream restocking space.
RU: The main force contract of RU01 rose by 35 or 0.28% and closed at 12,400. The main force contract of JRU10 fell by 3.3 or 1.86% and closed at 174.4. Yunnan WF closed at 11,000 yuan/ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 11,050 yuan/ton, the second standard rubber closed at 10,700 yuan/ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 13,400 to 13,500 yuan/ton.
NR: The main force contract of NR10 rose by 55 or 0.59% and closed at 9,130. The main force contract of TF12 fell by 2.5 or 1.85% and closed at 132.7. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD went down by 5-10 dollar/ton with normal inquiries. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,375 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in December was $1,400 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in December was $1,380-$1,385 per ton.
Data from the Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 472,000 and 447,000, down 10.4% and 16.6% month-on-month, and up 70.3% and 59.4% year-on-year. Among the main types of commercial vehicles, the production and sales of trucks and buses have declined compared with the previous month; compared with the same period of the previous year, the production and sales of passenger cars have declined rapidly, and the production and sales of trucks have maintained rapid growth.
The markets in the two places are closed today because it coincides with the birthday of the Queen of Thailand and the Janmashtami festival in India. In terms of concentrated latex, Thailand has had frequent rains recently, raw material prices have been firm, and there are not many domestic circulation spots. The tire production line operating rate is still performing well, driven by export sales, and poor replacement shipments have a drag on sales.
Futures Operation Advice: It is advised to long the main RU01 contract with small volumes, and set the stop loss at the recent low. (For reference only).