The sharp drop in oil prices yesterday was mainly driven by the sharp rebound of the U.S. dollar. The EIA data last night was disturbed by the hurricane and the negative effects were not significant. From the inventory data, the decline in imports was greater than the decline in exports. Inventories have fallen sharply, and refinery operating rates have also fallen from over 80% to 76% due to the hurricane. However, the EIA data itself is intertwined with longs and shorts and is not completely negative for oil prices. We mentioned in the previous report that the core of the current crude oil market The contradiction is still the game between weak fundamentals and weak U.S. dollar. If the U.S. dollar stabilizes and rebounds, then weak fundamentals resonate with macro-monetary factors, which will have a downward impact on oil prices.
Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy on Brent, long the sixth lines and short the first line
Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events. The dollar continues to depreciate sharply.
The position on I2101 contract increased by 8,356 lots and closed at ¥862.5 per ton, the position on I2105 contract decreased by 1,87 lots and closed at ¥795.5 per ton.
1. First commercial vehicle network released August heavy truck data. In August, China's heavy truck sales were about 128,000, an increase of 75% year-on-year; the cumulative sales from January to August were about 1.084 million, a cumulative increase of about 35%. Affected by the elimination of the national triplex trucks and the tightening of the overhaul, the demand for relocation engineering vehicles after the start of the superimposed infrastructure is strong. In August, the sales of heavy trucks were 128,000, a year-on-year increase of 75%, which continued to exceed market expectations.
2. In August, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the steel industry in Hebei Province was 52.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and it was above the line of prosperity for four consecutive months. From the breakdown of data, in August, the new order index was 52.9%, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous month; the new export order index was 40.8%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month; the output index was 53.5%, a decrease of 4.3% from the previous month; finished products; The material inventory index was 48.4%, up 5.4 percentage points from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 45.6%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous month.
3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥945 per ton, and the Golden Bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥1,005 per ton.
1. Arbitrage: At present, iron ore demand remains at a high level, while the overall supply has rebounded. Brazilian shipments have rebounded to a high level. The tightness has eased. The low-season or heating season of building materials at the end of the year may affect iron ore demand expectations, or lead to the inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Facing the peak season for building materials in the short term, the demand for building materials has shown signs of picking up recently. The peak season is driven by steel demand. Under the condition of a large basis, high fluctuations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
2. Option strategy: It is recommended to hold the long posiution on put seagull options, that is, sell i2101-C-870 and i2101-P-730, and buy i2101-P-810.
During the concentrated maintenance period, the inventory of TA increased and TA went up
In September, the inventory decreased slightly while full overhauls were realized, and the high inventory could not be resolved; there is still a cumulative stock expected in October. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be neutral; for the strategy across varieties, the high inventory problem has not been resolved yet, and it is not advised to maintain the strategy across varieties, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, the 1-5 cash and carry arbitrage strategy may rebound with TA overhauls, and after overhauls, the inventory accumulation expectation will return and it is advised to remain the 1-5 reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy. It is advised to focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes, and the downstream restocking space and improvement of demand.
RU: The main force contract of RU01 fell by 140 or 1.09% and closed at 12,690. The main force contract of JRU01 fell by 0.6 or 0.31% and closed at 196.1. Yunnan WF closed at 11,700 to 11.850 yuan per ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 11,750 to 11,900 yuan per ton, the second standard rubber closed at 10,700 per ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 14,600 to 14,700 yuan per ton.
NR: The main force contract of NR11 fell by 135 or 1.37% and closed at 9,720. The main force contract of TF12 rose by 0.1 or 0.07% closed at 143.1. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD went up. The CIF of STR20 in December was $1,480 to $1,490 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 was $1,415 to $ 1,420 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in December was $1,465 to $1,475 per ton.
Kunming Daily News: Yunnan's first business of replacing planted rubber bonded warehouses has landed, and its advantage lies in reducing costs and alleviating financial pressure for enterprises. The tariff on rubber is generally 3%. Based on the value of RMB 3,139,200, companies can reduce costs by RMB 90,000 in the warehousing process. In recent years, more than 100 enterprises in Yunnan Province have devoted themselves to opium poppy cultivation replacement. Through the implementation of the replacement project, the cultivation of opium poppy in the traditional poppy cultivation area has been reduced, and a large number of local people have been employed. The annual per capita income in the replacement project area has increased significantly, which has promoted the scientific and large-scale development of traditional planting in Myanmar and northern Laos. Rubber is the main species for alternative planting.
In recent days, heavy rains have been observed in major production provinces such as Rayong, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Songkhla. The average daily rainfall in the past 7 days was 9.37mm, which was higher than the level of the whole month in August. Domestic alternative planting indicators in Yunnan have entered the country continuously, alleviating the supply pressure of local basic raw materials. At present, the latex is reported to 10,100 to 10,500 yuan per ton, a premium of 200 to 300 yuan per ton in terms of the secondary cup lump.
Futures Operation Advice: For the main RU01 contract, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the recent low level. (For reference only).