Crude oil

At present, the economy of floating warehouses is still the focus of the market. Judging from the current monthly discount of Brent crude oil, the difference between the first and the six lines are at $2.4/barrel, and that between the first and the twelfth lines are at about $4.5/barrel. The discount rate is not as deep as in the second quarter, but because the current tanker freight rate is at a low level, which is equivalent to a daily rate of about 7000 US dollars, the floating warehouse is beginning to be operable. According to Platts, traders who started hoarding oil in the second quarter sought to extend the six-month tanker lease to avoid selling spot crude oil during the off-season of market demand. We believe that the biggest concern in the current market still comes from the expectation of a second outbreak of the epidemic. Although the current oversupply is far less than the second quarter, the current global oil inventory is still at a high level, the storage tolerance is much smaller than the second quarter, and OPEC has limited room for further production cuts. Fortunately, despite the recent new infections in European countries There was a rapid rebound, but there was no significant drop in electricity power data. Since most of the infected people are young people, the mortality rate is low, and there is no run on medical resources. Therefore, whether the government re-opens the city remains to be seen.

Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy on Brent, long the sixth lines and short the first line

Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events. The dollar continues to depreciate sharply.

Iron Ore

The position on I2101 contract increased by 12,099 lots and closed at ¥839 per ton, the position on I2105 contract decreased by 65 lots and closed at ¥768.0 per ton.

【Important Information】

1. According to data from the Pilbara Port Authority, 40.16 million tons of iron ore shipped from Port Hedland to China in August, an increase of 5.3% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, which was still far below the 46.2 million tons in June.

2. On Tuesday, the iron ore statistical sample port inventory was 81.89 million tons, an increase of 1.97 million tons from the previous month; the powder ore was 43.15 million tons, an increase of 970 thousand tons from the previous month. Lump ore was 22 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.05 million tons; pellets were 8.75 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 290,000 tons; fine powder was 7.99 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons.

3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥935 to ¥940 per ton, and the Golden Bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥1,000 per ton.

【Trading Strategy】

1. Arbitrage: Recently, there has been a significant accumulation of iron ore in ports, and the accumulation of sintered coarse powder, especially the Australian ore, has caused the overall delivery of Australia and Pakistan to be relatively high, and structural contradictions have improved. The prices of finished products (especially hot coils) fell sharply. There was a panic selling on the spot side yesterday, and the price fell by 80 yuan. The demand for finished products fell short of market expectations, and the hot roll was obvious. It is expected that there will be a reduction in production in the later period. The price of iron ore is far from the cost side, market selling pressure has appeared, and unilateral decline may continue. For 01 iron ore, it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 810 and 750 when it continues to drop. As to arbitrage strategy, the 1-5 reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy is recommended.

2. Option strategy: It is advised to short i2101-C-950.

PTA

The decline in crude oil led to a retreat in TA, and the basis was nearly inelastic and continued to weaken

In September, it was the first time to realize destocking if all overhauls are fulfilled, but the absolute number of inventories will still be high after the destocking; in October, if the overhauls are slow, there will be an expectation of inventory accumulation, and if all the overhauls are fulfilled, the inventory will decrease in stage. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be neutral; for the strategy across varieties, the high inventory problem has not been resolved yet, and it is not advised to maintain the strategy across varieties, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, the 1-5 cash and carry arbitrage strategy may rebound with TA overhauls, and after overhauls, the inventory accumulation expectation will return and it is advised to remain the 1-5 reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy. It is advised to focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes, and the downstream restocking space and improvement of demand.

Natural Rubber

RU: The main force contract of RU01 rose by 150 or 1.24% and closed at 12,270. The main force contract of JRU02 fell by 4.3 or 2.38% and closed at 176.0. Yunnan WF closed at 11,350 to 11.400 yuan per ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 11,500 yuan per ton, the secondary standard rubber closed at 10,600 to 10,700 per ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 15,050 yuan per ton.

NR: The main force contract of NR11 rose by 110 or 1.20% and closed at 9,245. The main force contract of TF12 rose by 1.5 or 1.12% closed at 135.0. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $10 to $40 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in December was $1,435 to $1,440 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 was $1,380 to $1,395 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in December was $1,390 per ton.

Sina Auto news: Continental recently announced that it will further implement the staff reduction plan. The proportion of reduced positions is expected to be as high as 13%. The total number of employees worldwide currently exceeds 245,000. Based on this calculation, the number of layoffs in this round will exceed 30,000. As the global automotive industry chain is undergoing tests, component manufacturers in the upper reaches of the industry chain are also struggling. The financial reports for the first half of the first half of many large auto parts manufacturers showed that their core performance indicators were almost down across the board, with an average revenue decline of more than 20%, and a year-on-year decline in net profit of more than 100%.

In Thailand, rainfall has increased recently. Heavy rains have been observed in Surat Thani, Rayong, Krabi, Yala and other provinces. The average daily rainfall in September rose to 10.75mm, and the cumulative rainfall in three months rose by 56.1% year-on-year. In terms of synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene is firm, the styrene butadiene and butadiene sales companies control sale orders and are reluctant to sell at low price, and the price of finished products has risen slightly.

Futures Operation Advice: For the main RU01 contract, it is advised to long a slight position and focus on the support at recent low level. (For reference only).