Last weekend, Libya’s LNA leader Haftar announced that the oil blockade would be lifted. Two oil companies, Arabian Gulf Oil Company and Sirte Oil and Gas Company, announced the resumption of operations. The Sharara and El Feel oil fields, both located in western Libya, are also planning to restart. However, the restart of Libya's production capacity is still full of uncertainty. We expect that its initial export volume may increase from 100,000 barrels/day to about 400,000 tto 500,000 barrels/day. According to Kpler’s statistics, there are currently approximately 25 million barrels in Libya’s east and west ports. Therefore, even if domestic oil field production has not kept up, its export volume may recover faster than its domestic production growth.
Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy on Brent, long the sixth lines and short the first line
Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events. The dollar continues to depreciate sharply.
The position on I2101 contract decreased by 9,013 lots and closed at ¥771.5 per ton, the position on I2105 contract increased by 4,278 lots and closed at ¥714.0 per ton.
1. Mysteel;: As of September 18, the total imported iron ore inventory of domestic steel mills was 113.322 million tons, an increase of 1.5237 million tons from the previous month; the current daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mill was 3,117,600 tons, an increase of 21,000 from the previous month Tons, the inventory consumption ratio was 36.35, an increase of 0.47 from the previous month.
2. Mysteel: As of September 20, Australia and Brazil have shipped 24.026 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 2.311 million tons from the previous month; Australia’s total shipments were 17.584 million tons, a decrease of 585,000 tons from the previous month; of which, Australia shipped to China 14.386 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 783,000 tons; Brazil’s total shipments were 6.442 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.726 million tons.
3. According to official data, the port of Sudeste in Brazil shipped 3.01 million tons of iron ore in August, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%. Among them, the shipment volume of fine ore was 2.95 million tons and the shipment volume of pellets was 60,000 tons. The port of Sudeste is a joint venture between Mubadala and Trafigura, and the main companies such as CSN and Usiminas ship at the port.
4. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port was ¥902 per ton, golden bubba powder price was equivalent to ¥968 per ton.
1. From the perspective of port inventory, the overall low inventory has rebounded, but some varieties have tight supply. Miners have good shipments and traders have a weak mentality. Although the operating rate of steel mills has not changed much, the gross profit margin of major steel products continuously compress and suppress the power of raw material procurement. The basis of 01 contract is large and is expected to weaken continuously, and it is advised to hold the 1-5 iron ore reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy.
2. Option strategy: It is advised to hold the short position on i2101-C-870.
Focus on the follow-up overhaul development; the market has declined slightly
In September, it was the first time to realize destocking if all overhauls are fulfilled, but the absolute number of inventories will still be high after the destocking; in October, if the overhauls are slow, there will be an expectation of inventory accumulation, and if all the overhauls are fulfilled, the inventory will decrease in stage. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be neutral; for the strategy across varieties, the high inventory problem has not been resolved yet, and it is not advised to maintain the strategy across varieties, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, it is advised to focus on the reverse cash and carry strategy opportunity after the next round of TA overhauls fullfilling and rebound of 1-5 spread. It is advised to focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes, and the downstream restocking space and improvement of demand.
RU: The main force contract of RU01 rose by 25 or 0.20% and closed at 12,425. It was the autumnal equinox day in Japan, and the local market was closed. Yunnan WF closed at 11,650 to 11,800 yuan per ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 11,800 and 12,050 yuan per ton, the secondary standard rubber closed at 10,600 to 10,700 per ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 15,600 to 15,900 yuan per ton.
NR: The main force contract of NR11 rose by 30 or 0.32% and closed at 9,270. The main force contract of TF12 fell by 1.4 or 1.01% closed at 137.7. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $20 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in December was $1,470 to $1,475 per ton. The spot price of CIF of SMR20 was $1,375 to $1,385 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in January was $1,430 to $1,435 per ton.
Minxiang.com: The price of rubber in Thailand has fallen by about 13% in the past two weeks. The Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand, Cha Linchai, said: The National Rubber Administration is required to investigate the rubber price fluctuations in the past 1 to 2 weeks and whether there is a abnormal pricea fluctuation and whether someone deliberately suppressed rubber prices. If it is discovered that the five major rubber exporters have a rumored problem of artificially suppressing rubber prices, the Rubber Administration is required to take measures and investigate and punish those who suppress rubber prices.
Judging from the extent of the decline, the rubber type investigated by the Thai Rubber Administration may be RSS3. The recent price has dropped from a high of 64.4 baht/kg to 58.7 baht/kg, a decrease of 8.9% within 5 working days. As of the first ten days of September, Japan's RSS delivery inventory declined by 476 tons to 6,815 tons, of which 246 tons were into the warehouse and 722 tons were out of the warehouse.
Futures Operation Advice: For the main RU01 contract, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high level at 12,560. (For reference only).