Crude oil

Recently, the National Petroleum Corporation of Libya has successively lifted the force majeure between oil terminals and oil fields. In terms of ports, except for the two largest oil ports in Libya, Ras Lanuf (200,000 barrels/day) and Es sider (350,000 barrels/day), other oil ports It has been reopened. Although the Zawiya port of 200,000 barrels per day has been reopened, it is still uncertain whether the oil supply from the Sharara oil field has been resumed, and other ports have started loading ships recently. Oilfields are lagging behind the port restart. The largest oilfield Sharara has been restarted on September 20, but its current production capacity is about 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, which is less than half of the total production capacity. Other oilfields are slowly restarting the process. In October, Libya’s production is expected to return to 300,000 barrels per day. The smooth increase in production in the future depends on whether the two major oil ports in the east can lift the force majeure and whether the oil fields can smoothly increase production capacity.

Strategy: Neutral and bearish relatively, reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy on Brent, long the sixth lines and short the first line

Risk: Supply disruption caused by sudden geopolitical events. The dollar continues to depreciate sharply.

Iron Ore

The position on I2101 contract decreased by 2,546 lots and closed at ¥763 per ton, the position on I2105 contract decreased by 54 lots and closed at ¥706 per ton.

【Important Information】

1. According to foreign media reports, South Korean steel company POSCO announced that its steel plant has returned to a fully operational level to meet the expected growth in global steel demand. Its third steel plant in Gwangyang City has resumed operations in July, and all plants are close to full capacity. In addition, POSCO increased the prices of hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel by 50,000 won (approximately 290 yuan) and 20,000 to 40,000 won (approximately 116-232 yuan) per ton in September, and is considering another price increase in October.

2. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to August, local government bonds issued nationwide amounted to 4,958.4 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of general bonds was 1,770.1 billion yuan, and the issuance of special bonds was 3,188.3 billion yuan; according to the purpose, the issuance of new bonds was 3,749.9 billion yuan and the issuance of refinancing bonds was 1,208.5 billion yuan.

3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port was ¥880 per ton, golden bubba powder price was equivalent to ¥960 per ton.

【Trading Strategy】

1. This week, the port inventory continued to accumulate to a certain extent, and the pressure on the port increased. The overall accumulation was about 3 to 4 million tons. The pig iron output continued to decline slightly. In recent weeks, the 247 pig iron output has fallen from a high level to about 40,000 tons per day. The shipment volume also continued to decline slightly this week, mainly due to the restrictions on automobile transportation in two ports in Tangshan. The second outbreak in Europe has weakened the role of iron ore diversion, and the absolute amount of imported iron ore to the port remains at a relatively high level. Under the situation of tight steel depot time during peak seasons, there will be pressure on pig iron output at the end of the year, and the overall iron ore is expected to accumulate, but the current basis of the 01 contract is already large. It is recommended to lighten up the short position.The iron ore 1-5 reverse cash and carry arbitrage position can continue to hold, but you can also consider lightening up, paying attention to the support at the recent low.

2. Option strategy: It is advised to short i2101-C-870.

PTA

The PTA in South China overhauled temporarily stopped short, polyester production and sales are acceptable

In September, it was the first time to realize destocking if all overhauls are fulfilled, but the absolute number of inventories will still be high after the destocking; in October, if the overhauls are slow, there will be an expectation of inventory accumulation, and if all the overhauls are fulfilled, the inventory will decrease in stage. In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advised to be neutral; for the strategy across varieties, the high inventory problem has not been resolved yet, and it is not advised to maintain the strategy across varieties, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, it is advised to focus on the reverse cash and carry strategy opportunity after the next round of TA overhauls fullfilling and rebound of 1-5 spread. It is advised to focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes, and the downstream restocking space and improvement of demand.

Natural Rubber

RU: The main force contract of RU01 fell by 15 or 0.12% and closed at 12,375. The main force contract of JRU02 fell by 0.5 or 0.27% and closed at 182.0. Yunnan WF closed at 11,550 to 11,700 yuan per ton, Hainan SCRWF closed at 11,700 and 11,750 yuan per ton, the secondary standard rubber closed at 10,600 to 10,700 per ton, and Thailand’s RSS3 closed at 15,600 to 15,900 yuan per ton.

NR: The main force contract of NR12 rose by 50 or 0.53% and closed at 9,400. The main force contract of TF12 fell by 0.2 or 0.15% closed at 137.1. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $5 to $10 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in December was $1,475 to $1,480 per ton. The spot price of CIF of SIR20 was $1,360 to $1,370 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in January was $1,425 to $1,430 per ton.

Citing Xinhua Finance News: The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) said on Wednesday that it estimated that natural rubber production would decline in the rest of 2020, and the decline would continue until early 2021. In 2020, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by at least 859,000 tons from the 8.79 million tons in 2019. ITRC said that the new coronavirus epidemic affected rubber tapping, the weather was changeable, and leaf disease caused production to decline. However, as China's economic activity accelerates, natural rubber consumption is expected to increase.

The domestic Hainan area is affected by the rain and weather, and the supply of latex is limited. The private latex is reported to be 11,300 to 11,400 yuan/ton, and the a discount of about 400 yuan/ton in terms of concentrated latex. According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics, the domestic all-steel operating rate was 74.5%, the week-on-week (relative) production increase was 0.3%, and the year-on-year (relative) production increased by 13.8%. The average monthly operating rate of all-steel and semi-steel production lines increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped compared with 11.5% last month.

Futures Operation Advice: For the main RU01 contract, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high level at 12,500. (For reference only).